October 7, 2022

StrategisChhr

Skillful Business Crafters

Weak Post-Earnings, ViaSat Stock Looks Set For A Recovery

ViaSat Inc. stock (NASDAQ: VSAT) is down around 17{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b} in the past month (21 trading days), underperforming the S&P 500 which was down around 1.3{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b} over this period. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has returned -3.5{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b} and 0.8{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b}, respectively, underperforming the broader market on both occasions. This comes as a surprise after VSAT reported strong Q2 ’22 earnings in early November (VSAT’s fiscal year ends in March), with revenue at $701 million, up significantly from $554 million in Q2 ’21. However, with operating expenses growing faster than the growth in revenue, operating income dropped from $12.7 million to $8.3 million over this period. Additionally, a lower interest expense and a higher tax benefit outweighed the rise in VSAT’s share count, leading to EPS rising from $0.03 in Q2 ’21 to $0.04 in Q2 ’22. For details on VSAT historical revenue and margin growth along with comparison to that of its peer, see ViaSat Revenue Comparison.

Now, is ViaSat stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a rally? We believe that there is a strong 67{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b} chance of a rise in ViaSat stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on VSAT Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about VSAT historical returns and comparison to peers, see ViaSat Inc. Stock Return.

Twenty-One Day: VSAT -17{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b}, vs. S&P500 -1.3{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b}; Underperformed market

(2{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b} likelihood event; 67{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b} probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • VSAT stock dropped 17{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b} the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 1.3{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b}
  • A change of -17{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b} or more over twenty-one trading days is a 2{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b} likelihood event, which has occurred 45 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 45 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 30 occasions
  • This points to a 67{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b} probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: VSAT 0.8{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b}, vs. S&P500 1.2{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b}; Underperformed market

(40{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b} likelihood event; 45{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b} probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • VSAT stock rose 0.8{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b} over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.2{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b}
  • A change of 0.8{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b} or more over ten trading days is a 40{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b} likelihood event, which has occurred 1000 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 1000 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 446 occasions
  • This points to a 45{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b} probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: VSAT -3.5{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b}, vs. S&P500 -1.5{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b}; Underperformed market

(21{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b} likelihood event; 53{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b} probability of rise over next five days)

  • VSAT stock dropped 3.5{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b} over a five-day trading period ending 12/13/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) drop of 1.5{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b}
  • A change of -3.5{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b} or more over five trading days (one week) is a 21{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b} likelihood event, which has occurred 519 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 519 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 276 occasions
  • This points to a 53{614c55998ee2f2593d42882a86444f5648ce8ae9e914fe55020881091372b47b} probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

 

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https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2021/12/16/weak-post-earnings-viasat-stock-looks-set-for-a-recovery/